O’Rielly’s TMT Whiteboard: The Principle of Sufficiency? A Book Review

By Michael O’Rielly

One of the delightful aspects of being a public official, and sometimes a former one, is being exposed to some very thoughtful and probing concepts. Status quo thinking—following a path because that’s always the way it’s been done or contemplated—only lasts until someone comes along to challenge underlying notions. Such is the case with a recent book, “The End of Telecoms History,” by Dennis Roberson and William Webb, which is an updated version from 2024. Rather than endlessly chauffeuring kids to and from, it was enjoyable to actually read a book to consider whether the authors were on to something.

By way of background, Mr. Roberson caught some comments of mine from a recent panel of experts. I argued that the vast majority of consumers were using applications that cumulatively never came close to exceeding network limits, especially since most apps use almost no bandwidth. I call this the bicycle vs. rocket ship dichotomy, or the difference between real needs and imaginary wants. Most people’s internet use is equivalent to that of a bicycle or sedan, failing the need for a flashy space shuttle. Thus, public policy shouldn’t impose internet wants based on the idea it might be needed someday. Roberson and Webb take the next step to assert that there is a high likelihood that it will never be needed.

The premise of The End of Telecoms History is that data usage growth is slowing considerably, and therefore, current networks—be it wired, mobile or satellite based— have all the capacity and speed needed, with reasonable but minimal upgrades, to meet consumer demand now and well into the future. Roberson and Webb make a case for their analysis and base it on pertinent facts, although it does raise questions over whether this growth—even at slow rates—is still not significant, a point that will need to be debated extensively. If accurate, it should raise eyebrows in the network building community (outside the unserved household sector) and put to bed calls for regulators to set far-reaching “futuristic” network mandates.

What is most notable about the book is that it shares a perspective and seeks to back up the assertions with data. Chapter 4 methodically inspects global markets’ data usage to show growth rates dropping precipitously over the last five to 10 years (with some upticks for COVID days) and compares these with previous predictions. A conclusionary statement included: “[W]e finally have all that we need from both a technological capability perspective and for much of the developed world, from a deployed capability perspective.” Outside parties have the opportunity to question and challenge the underlying calculations and the data fundamentals.

If this isn’t stimulating enough, the book explores new applications to determine whether usage and growth rates will pop in the future. The short answer from the authors is negative, but it is worth reading the analysis of 5G use cases such as virtual reality, Internet of Things, integrated sensing, autonomous cars, artificial intelligence and others. Similarly, the authors suggest Fixed Wireless Access can generate added mobile capacity needs, but at the same time, it doesn’t affect overall data growth as it represents, in some instances, a transfer from one technology to another. Other factors that could increase growth (e.g., population growth, younger internet-craved users aging) could be countered, as argued, by improvements in video and over-the-top technologies.

As a professional in the space, I may have more faith in future technology surprising us than the authors. I still believe in 5G and eventually 6G changing society and lean slightly toward the school of thought that technologists will continue to innovate and pierce boundaries to justify bigger and better networks, even if public policy must not be conditioned on such hopes. Moreover, serious network enhancements—like the need for more commercial spectrum for all providers/users—will still be required, even if not at outlandish levels. This isn’t a slight of the book, as it acknowledges much of this in Chapter 9.

Overall, reading the book is like hearing an early eulogy for someone who is moving to a nursing home, although not the fault of the authors. A once dynamic industry full of vigor, driven by entrepreneurs, providers, creators and users, will settle into one approaching a mature, stodgy utility with slow growth rates. Still important, but an industry that’s sedentary and headed for the shuffleboard court. The players consisting of providers, equipment manufacturers, regulators, academia, and the like will shrink and become less relevant. Cue the sadness.

The End of Telecoms History provides readers with much to contemplate and has implications for the future of network construction, if the work is properly substantiated. The authors’ views require thoughtful review and their premise, with supporting data, is certainly provocative.

Michael O’Rielly is a former FCC Commissioner and congressional staffer who serves as President at MPORielly Consulting. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of Cablefax.

The post O’Rielly’s TMT Whiteboard: The Principle of Sufficiency? A Book Review appeared first on Cablefax.